The State of Autonomous Vehicles in 2024
Autonomous vehicles (AVs) are a very promising technology, with benefits for safety and efficiency, but a lot of the excitement that was in the space has left. 2024 has continued to be a challenging year. Many companies are struggling – and quite a few in the space have even gone out of business. But the challenges have also pushed those that are still active to be even better.
There are still many hurdles to autonomous motoring, from making sure there are clear definitions for what different levels of autonomy are. There are also regulatory challenges, and clarity about what commercialization will look like is still not here.
This article is an overview of where things stand and what we might expect in the next few years when it comes to autonomous driving.
What Are Autonomous Vehicles?
Many automakers and tech companies, including Tesla, Waymo, and others, have made significant progress in the development of autonomous driving technology. Tesla’s approach is most unique, because until just recently, they don’t make specific vehicles for autonomous driving, instead claiming all of the vehicles they make are built with the hardware needed to achieve autonomy.
With millions of connected vehicles now on the road, companies can crowdsource more data – to get closer to full autonomy. However, most vehicles capable of full autonomy are still considered Level 2 or 3 autonomous – where vehicles can assist drivers in specific scenarios, but still require human intervention.
Full Level 5 autonomy – where no human intervention is required – remains a future goal. However, we are seeing Waymo domestically and other companies in China, currently offering autonomous rides in select cities showing that their systems are close.
Coincidentally, another interesting trend is companies like GM, with its Cruise division, along with Ford and Volkswagen with Argo (which is now out of business), have pivoted away from autonomy – and are now leveraging some of what they’ve learned to offer more advanced driver assistance features that consumers can purchase for Level 2 functionality. That’s far from autonomous.
Commercialization of Autonomous Vehicles
While fully autonomous consumer vehicles are not yet widespread, there have been successful pilot programs for “robotaxis” and autonomous shuttles in specific areas. Companies like Waymo are operating autonomous ride-hailing services in cities like San Francisco, Phoenix, and Austin, though with certain operational limitations.
Tesla, during their recent “We, Robot” event has said they will also start operating autonomous ride-hailing in California and Texas next year. The service will likely start with existing Tesla vehicles on the road, instead of the speculative products recently announced.
Barriers to Autonomous Vehicles
Regulations remain a significant barrier to widespread deployment of autonomous driving. Different countries, and even regions within countries, are at various stages of creating policies that will govern AVs.
The lack of uniform global standards has hindered faster commercialization, and safety concerns remain a critical issue.
The different models for autonomy must also learn and deal with various road laws that not only vary from country to country but also sometimes even in different municipalities.
These are some of the many areas that make the challenges of figuring out how autonomous vehicles legally operate on the road. However, the promise of autonomous vehicles to make roads safer for everyone, along with their financial promise, continues to push companies and regulators forward.
Overall, the public is still very skeptical around autonomy, especially in regards to safety. Continuous media articles about incidents involving AVs in real-world testing has only further amplified these anxieties. However, trust in AV technology is slowly improving, especially as autonomous features like adaptive cruise control and lane-keeping systems become more mainstream in consumer vehicles.
The hands-on (and sometimes literally hands-off) experience does help to prove the merit of an automated driving future.
Autonomous Driving: The Next Few Years
What about the future of autonomous driving? First, we’ll see expansion of pilot programs. More cities are likely to introduce and expand existing autonomous pilot programs. These will involve shuttles, ride-hailing services, and delivery vehicles in specific urban areas, but under controlled conditions. The success of these programs could lead to wider adoption, particularly in the commercial sector. As mentioned, Tesla among others, has already shared interest in ambitious expansion in the next couple of years to catch with others like Waymo.
Advances in hardware, AI and machine learning will also propel the future of autonomous driving. There have already been large leaps in the hardware that enables autonomous vehicles. The trend has been towards simplification of total hardware used – so instead of cameras, radar and lidar, many systems are moving to simpler vision systems and doubling down on investing in computer processors.
More Processing Power
The processors are probably the most important development focus, since they actually process all of the inputs from cameras and sensors, and make the actual driving decisions. Adding more sensors means more computing power is required to process all of the real-time data being fed from sensors.
It’s not just the computing hardware that has advanced; AI and machine learning algorithms continue to improve the actual decision-making. Autonomous vehicles continue to become more capable of handling complex driving scenarios, including those involving inclement weather and unpredictable traffic patterns. These advancements are critical for scaling AV operations beyond controlled environments.
While full autonomy may be several years away, consumers will continue to see more advanced driver-assistance systems (ADAS) in mainstream vehicles. Features like hands-free highway driving (offering Level 3 autonomy) and more sophisticated parking automation will become increasingly common. These features already give many drivers on the road great options – and they are being continuously improved over time with over-the-air updates.
The Regulatory Landscape
Governments and regulators will likely develop clearer frameworks for autonomous vehicles over the next few years, especially in the U.S. and Europe. As standards emerge, automakers will be better positioned to deploy autonomous cars on a larger scale. Federal safety guidelines may prioritize autonomous delivery services and commercial transportation first, before autonomous passenger vehicles.
The 2024 U.S. election could have a large influence on what regulations look like. Will it be a more open and regulation-light future, or will there be an interest in the government being involved closely along the way?
The Business of Autonomous Driving
Autonomous trucks are expected to see broader adoption in the next few years, especially for long-haul freight. Companies like TuSimple, Aurora, and Embark are focusing on autonomous trucking, which could reduce driver shortages and increase efficiency in the logistics industry.
While “cybercabs” and personal use cases grab all of the attention in recent articles, there is a large market opportunity for commercial vehicles to become autonomous. Not just for reliable logistics, but also to help with safety. Autonomous trucks could help ensure safer vehicles that are continuously aware of their surroundings – and that are able to stay alert and avoid fatigue on the road, which human operators are subject to.
As automakers, tech companies, and startups race to perfect autonomous technology, we are likely to see even more partnerships and acquisitions or mergers. Recently, Waymo announced they’d be partnering with Hyundai for their next generation of autonomous vehicles.
New alliances will accelerate development and possibly lower costs for consumers. Uber and others who already have ride-share services have also mentioned an eagerness to partner with companies building AVs to avoid the R&D cost of building and developing new vehicles – and also the potential PR problems that can come from robotaxi development.
Conclusion: the Outlook for Full Autonomy
To ensure public acceptance, the safety of AVs will remain a top priority. The industry will need to invest heavily in cyber-security, and also vehicle-to-vehicle (V2V) communication technology to prevent accidents and build public trust. Public education campaigns around autonomous vehicle safety could also increase acceptance.
Despite all the progress being made, full Level 5 autonomy is still likely years away, and maybe a decade from widespread use. However, targeted applications – such as robotaxis in specific geofenced areas, autonomous delivery services, and long-haul trucking – could see significant growth in the next five years.
The convergence of improved AI, regulatory clarity, and consumer demand for convenience and safety, will drive the industry forward to a safer future, albeit cautiously.
